Most of us are in shock about the recent developments in the middle east. Others are already making Memes about World War 3. Somewhere in between there is a president facing impeachment that seems to be losing it. Years ago he accused Obama of provoking a war with Iran to up his chances getting reelected. This suggests that he is familiar with the fact that voters in the USA most likely vote for their president at times of war, especially if it is a World War. 

We almost got used to Trump acting like a madman since elected to office, but this is a whole new level. Either he is so scared of impeachment and upcoming elections that he is willing to risk a war with an unknown outcome that will kill millions of people or he is really simple minded enough to believe that killing an official of another country is acceptable within International Law. 

Probably it is a mix of both. 

The conflict between the US and Iran has been going on since the revolution in Iran forty years ago. A lot has happened since then and before that. Looking at today’s situation we have to look at the prior decades to get an idea of the bigger picture. 

In the eighties the USA took side in favour of Iraq and supported them in their war against Iran. Saddam Hussein was able to win the war against Iran after almost ten years. It was in the interest of the West to weaken the Iranian influence in the region at that time. Over the last decades alliances have been formed with one part of the muslim world: The Sunnis. 

For those of you, probably the majority of us, that don’t know much about the muslim world. There is two major groups of muslims that have been in war with each other since the early days of Islam: Sunnis and Shiites. There is many more groups within the muslim community, but these are the two most relevant groups for international politics. 

Before the US entered the war in Iraq seventeen years ago, Saddam Hussein was holding down the Shiite majority in Iraq and ruled the country in favour of the more wealthy and influential Sunni Muslims. After he was killed, Iraq has drifted into chaos and entered a state of civil war. ISIS was founded and spread terror over Iraq, Syria and other countries in the region. They follow a radical stream within the Sunni community. Besides western effort to stop ISIS from taking over the middle east, there was another group that fought ISIS: The Shiites. 

Shiites were supported by the Revolutionary Guards of Iran in their fight against ISIS. Iran and Syria are the two biggest Shiite majority countries in the middle east. These are the guys that were under the command of Qassim Suleimani. This man was known as one of the most dangerous men for western and Sunnite interest in the middle east. Obama already wanted to go after him, but decided that it was not worth the risk of a war. There is no doubt that Suleimani was stirring up hatred against the USA in Iraq and elsewhere. Most probably he was behind the attacks on the US embassy in Iraq end of December 2019. It is safe to say that he was not a good guy. 

Whatever we think or feel about Qassim Suleimani, he was a very high ranked official in Iran. He was killed by missiles on his way from Baghdad airport to a meeting. Half a dozen officials that were with him also lost their lives. Obama referred to “red lines” during his presidency and Donald Trump also used this terminology. Usually the red line was defined by Iran getting weapons of mass destruction. Now we are dealing with a different red line in International Law: The killing of high ranked officials. 

This is an act of war. Even during war it would be a questionable move to kill officials of other countries, especially when they are visiting another country. In this case there was no war declared between the US and Iran, which makes this killing an act that is clearly violating international law. No country in the world would accept this behaviour and there is a very high chance that there will be retaliation in one or the other way, which of course will cause another act of violence and sets up a dynamic that is leading to war, some say World War 3. 

Again, either Trump is aware of this or he is not capable of understanding what he just did. He crossed a red line and set the world on fire. From all things he did so far during his presidency, this is by far the biggest mistake he could have made. 

European allies are shaking their heads and remain surprisingly silent up to this point. Nobody wants to get involved in a war with Iran. Russia and China already signalled that this is not acceptable to them. In the meantime Trump celebrates himself on Twitter. 

We don’t know where this is going. Simply because there is no case in history that this can be compared with. The next days will be crucial for the outcome of this conflict. Political scientists only hope that both sides will act reasonable and aware of their responsibility. We don’t know how Iran is going to react, but we already saw that one side has left the grounds of international law. 

By no means my intention is to defend Qassim Suleimani. It is not my goal to justify expected Iranian retaliation in any way. I am simply scared that the public opinion will be directed towards supporting Trump on starting a war with Iran. 

There is nothing to gain from this and the Iranian military is not to be underestimated. Seventeen years in Iraq and nineteen years in Afghanistan have shown that wars in the middle east are not won in a week. Why enter a war with a country that is about five times bigger in manpower and weapons than the other two? 

Aren’t there enough problems at home to look at? Wasn’t the MAGA campaign based on bringing home the troops? Where does this hunger for war come from? 

And most importantly: When do the marches against war in the USA start? It is about time.