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January 27, 2022

Fear, Politics and why the Human Inability to Assess Risk is Driving Us All Mad

“…but, there’s no such thing as COVID!”

That familiar phrase that signals the end of a report about whoever my husband knows is sick made my brain snap back to paying attention to him. I don’t bother responding verbally anymore, so he just gets a blank stare until I turn away and roll my eyes.

Seems harsh, right? Well, all couples have a shorthand, and this is just his way to bait me for not being utterly terrified of COVID. My ultra conservative, Nixon and nuclear bomb loving spouse is all in on the masking, distancing, and vaccines. He was all proud of himself when he showed me his booster on his card. (Mine still just has two lines filled, but it hasn’t been the originally advised six months since my second, yet.)

Unlike far too many people, I have been paying attention to the news on the pandemic, with an eye toward any good news. That means people often assume that I’m in with the Ivermectin loving, vaccine hating, “them’s my rights so I won’t wear a mask” crowd. The truth is that I prefer facts over fear.

As a chronically anemic person with periodic problems with immunity, this pandemic has been interesting to deal with for me. I didn’t leap to get vaccinated because of early reports about women having blood clots and strokes. Since I have had all the “rare and severe reactions” to every vaccination I have received since the early 90’s, I think there was nothing wrong with waiting until it was called “most likely coincidental” instead of caused by the vaccine.

All along I have generally observed the precautions suggested – stepped up washing hands, kept my distance from people, and limited outings with large groups. But, I still hate seeing people wear masks outdoors, and I knew from the start that masks below N95 level with at least a soft seal on the face weren’t really doing much against any virus.

Every pharmacist I have talked with in my town has said get re-tested if anyone tests positive. Sorry, but that just screams “we have a relatively high false positive rate” right now. How many times have we seen sports and other public figures on the news for testing positive and then cleared as negative just a few days later? Just guessing, but I don’t believe that they miraculously cleared the virus that fast, so…

We see case numbers offered daily, but usually without context. Positivity rate is meaningful, and has generally stayed around the 25-30% mark. No matter what, one set of numbers has remained the same – survival rate for this virus is somewhere between 97 and over 99 percent. It’s not like the as low as 75% survival rate for Scarlet Fever before the advent of antibiotics, so maybe we better start hoping we never see an antibiotic resistant strain of that rear its ugly head.

To place this in perspective, unless you avoid being in or driving vehicles altogether, you have about the same chances of dying in a car accident as you do of dying from this virus, assuming you end up in that somewhere around 25-30% of the people who end up with it. Yes, Dr. Fauci just said it’s likely that just about everyone will get it, but that’s a very big leap.

What people need to remember is that epidemiologists are not quite normal when it comes to dealing with pathogens out in the wild. It’s not surprising since their work is all about diseases. But, unfortunately they have been center stage stoking the fear in our society, and that’s sending us into other problems. It’s fair to say that the fearmongering has probably gotten out of control now that we’re seeing students striking over COVID fears. Chicago students want more mental health resources, so at least they recognize the mental (lack of) health side of this pandemic. Would be so much better if they were demanding better educational resources – baby steps?

As for me, I am fine with taking the risks I am now. I eat out occasionally, visit bars, go shopping, and go to movies. If I don’t feel well, I stay home. When I am out, I tend to stay away from others. I reached this point by weighing the information available, and deciding how much risk I am willing to bear. People are tired of this, and bluntly, we are reaching the point where everyone needs to decide what is right for themselves. And there really isn’t a “one size fits all” answer. I live in suburbia, so I don’t face the same issues as people in urban areas. It’s not my place to tell someone else what to do, so unless you’re standing right in front of me coughing in my face, you do your thing. Thankfully, other than on social media, I haven’t needed to deal with anyone getting in my face.

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