Only 15% of Iowans turned out. Weather and AP didn’t help, but Trump is not the popular magnet media thinks he is. He’s got his cult, that’s about it. Haley and DeSantis combined would have been a close second. If Trump stumbles in NH, he loses inevitability, which is all he really has going for him: that he “wins.” I wrote up a bit more here about Biden, below.
A few things you may not hear about Iowa’s Caucus.
Only 15% of voters turned out. That means Trump is not the beloved magnetizing popular guy he thinks he is. He’s a turn off. Only the hardcore came out to vote (weather and the AP didn’t help).
Haley and DeSantis combined would be a close second to Trump. If he stumbles, and one of them quits, New Hampshire could unseat his inevitability, which at this point is all he has going for him with all but the Jan 6 conspiracy hateful crowd, who are not nearly enough to elect anyone.
Biden’s numbers may be even, ahead, or low at this point, but that’s always how it is until the incumbent actually starts running and benefiting from the contrast of a confirmed sexual assaulter, liar, thief, immoral man, the last man any avowed Christian would have voted for only 20 years ago.
While I’d like a younger option, Biden has accomplished more, with next to no bipartisan support and a slim-to-none majority, of a progressive agenda (most adopted formally via Bernie Sanders) than any since FDR. While it’s not enough, the Infrastructure Act was by far the largest bulwark on climate crisis we’ve ever seen, and its effects are exponential, and good for our now-strong-again economy. Look at the numbers. Prices are down, not just inflation. Inflation was high all over the world, but fell here faster. Employment is strong. Boring may not be popular, decent may not make for exciting headlines, democracy may be imperfect, authoritarianism/strong men will always have their hateful appeal…but given women’s rights, accelerating and costly and heartbreaking (millions dead from floods, drought, famine, fires/pollution/toxic smoke, destabilization of governments and resulting wars/migrations) climate crisis, fragile voting rights, economy, international upheaval, immigration, education, healthcare…yeah:
I will happily vote for President Biden over Trump.